What’s in it for me? Learn why, as global temperatures soar, our survival depends on our ability to manage migration.
Over the next 50 years, climate change will make the world uninhabitable for 3.
5 billion people.
Humans will flee from floods, fire, heat, and drought, and the resulting damage to agriculture and habitat.
As temperatures rise, entire countries will disappear, forcing their citizens to find new places to live and work.
The resulting great climate migration will drive people from the global south where these effects are greater, toward the north.
As a result, wherever you live on Earth, you’ll become either a migrant or a host.
So how can we best survive in this new world?
The answer, says Gaia Vince, is to embrace the one thing that helped us spread around the globe in the first place: migration.
Our history is a story of migration – our ability to find new homes and new farmlands.
The most prosperous city-states and countries have historically been those that were hubs for talent and collaboration.
Going forward, we need to tap into this innate adventurous spirit that pushes us to innovate.
We have to reinvent our communities.
This Blink to Nomad Century presents a stark picture of where we are now and where we might end up if we don’t act.
But it also provides solutions to our shared problems that can only be solved through global collaboration, planned migration, and clever science.
Done well, we have a chance of living in a better world.
Section 1: Climate change is humanity’s biggest challenge.
The island nation of Kiribati has bought a forest in Fiji to host its citizens when their country eventually goes underwater.
And it’s likely it won’t be the only one having to do something like this.
A temperature rise of 4°C by 2100 will transform the world beyond recognition.
Sea levels will have risen by 2 meters and climate change will be killing more people than all the infectious diseases put together.
One-third of Bangladeshis live on land that’s vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Heat waves have become increasingly common.
They’re so bad that rice planters in Vietnam now use headlamps to plant at night to avoid the daytime heat.
For every degree rise in temperature, humidity goes up six times, making it hard to cool down by sweating.
The world now experiences more days over 50°C than it did 30 years ago, and wildfires are even happening in the world’s coldest places.
We need look no further than recent mega forest fires in Siberia, Greenland, Alaska, and Canada.
And it’s not just the heat.
Floods are washing through villages, cities, and crops on every continent.
Hurricanes are becoming more violent.
Our roads are melting.
And clean water is becoming more scarce.
These extreme weather disasters are causing lasting damage to communities and increasing levels of hunger as farmland is destroyed.
Outbreaks of disease are multiplying as a result of poor sanitation.
And we’re already seeing conflicts over limited resources.
When climate disasters strike, the poor and marginalized fair worse.
Girls miss out on their education, women are more likely to lose their jobs, and less-networked people can’t access the information they need to find work or escape danger.
But hunger, drought, strife, and displacement won’t only impact poorer nations.
For instance, in 2021 half of displaced Americans were escaping from climate disasters.
And by 2050, half of Cardiff, the capital of Wales, could be underwater.
So where do we go from here?
Section 2: We need to challenge our beliefs about borders.
It takes some nerve to suggest our problems will be solved by more migration at a time when rich nations are trying to prevent migrants from crossing their borders.
Even more daring is the idea that migration should be anticipated, facilitated, and executed on a global scale.
But migration is exactly how humanity got here.
The only difference with past migration is that governments all over the world will have to collaborate on a scale never seen before.
People have always moved to find better opportunities.
After the invention of borders, we found a way to move goods and services from one part of the planet to another, bringing about the migration of things and intangibles.
This led to specialization, transport, and supply chains from which modern economies have emerged.
Modern nation-states that preach closed borders are fairly recent.
We never used to tie our identities to a plot of land.
In the past, people migrated to self-governing cities where they thrived because these were hubs for trade, culture, art, scientific innovation, and collaboration.
It was after World War I that most international boundaries took effect.
In 1800, only 10 percent of what we now call French people spoke the language.
And after the unification of Italy, less than 3 percent spoke Italian.
In fact, Italian leaders at that time communicated among themselves in French.
Some of these nation-states were carved out way before mass education, bureaucracy, and ideology drilled patriotism into their citizens.
Indeed, Gaia Vince provides a poignant example, citing an Italian leader who said that after the creation of Italy it was then necessary to create Italians.
Today, our world is a lot more complex.
People can’t just move across borders.
So we first need to convince our citizens and leaders before rolling out this ambitious plan.
We need to explain to the world why we really need migrants.
Section 3: Migration provides benefits to host countries.
Tomato farming became mechanized just two years after Mexican farm workers were kicked out of California in 1964.
But expelling these workers led to a decline in the growth of crops where it was harder to mechanize the process – asparagus, lettuce, and strawberries, for instance.
Farm owners, immigrant laborers, and the local economy ended up losing in this venture.
When migrants are allowed to work, spend what they earn, and pay taxes, they improve the economy of their host country.
A study by Giovanni Peri from the University of California found that immigration between 1990 and 2007 boosted the average US wage by $5,100.
Contrary to populist rhetoric, immigrants don’t take jobs from locals.
Migrants are most likely to occupy jobs that locals won’t take like cleaning and care.
In turn, this frees up local women to join the workforce.
As immigrants move up the labor ladder, they effectively push locals into better-paying management and communication jobs.
Many countries have devised immigration policies that discriminate against what they consider low-skilled workers, but it’s migrants in this category that are the glue that holds their economies together.
Migrants are also less likely to claim benefits and many of them contribute to funds that sustain welfare programs.
In fact, migrants can earn three to six times more and are more likely to start their own businesses.
Places where migrants settle become hubs for trade and culture.
Think of Chinatown, Little Italy, and Little Greece in the US.
Half of the founders in Silicon Valley are migrants or children of migrants.
The great innovators at Google, Yahoo!
, Kraft Foods, and Tesla all came from other countries.
As populations in developed countries shrink, migrants will become even more important.
Japan, for instance, will see a decline in population from 128 million to 53 million by 2100.
And with 2 million people over 90 in Japan, adult diapers are outselling infant ones.
Surely it must be obvious that they need more foreign workers.
Contrary to the rhetoric of many politicians, immigration won’t make you poor.
It has the potential to increase your earnings and push you into a better job – if your government manages it right.
Section 4: Developing countries also benefit from migration.
So you’ve seen how migration can boost the economy of host nations.
And you’ve probably heard about the “brain drain” from poor countries.
How then does migration benefit countries whose citizens leave to find work?
Less than 5 percent of the world’s population as a whole are international migrants.
And less than 3 percent of Africans live abroad.
When people move, it’s primarily to better themselves and their families back home.
Remit payments from immigrant workers are more effective than aid because the money goes directly to their families to solve their problems, open businesses, and send their kids to school.
Unlike international aid, less is spent on administrative expenses.
So what we should do is cut the cost of international money transfers so migrants can send more money home.
For example, children from families in Ghana that receive money from abroad have a 54 percent higher chance of finishing secondary school than their schoolmates.
More money coming in means more schools being built.
Migrants who return home also help promote democratic values in their home country.
In Mali, for instance, people in areas with large numbers of migrant returnees tend to be more likely to vote.
The transfer of technical skills and knowledge from migrants working in better-equipped labs, offices, and research facilities to their home countries lasts even longer.
Much has been made of the brain drain when workers leave gaps at home, but these can be plugged with organized and planned migration that benefits every side.
Filipino nurses, for example, are known for their expertise.
If the US could invest in training Filipino nurses in their home country, there would be more providing services to Filipinos.
The US could also invest in specialization and infrastructure so that it takes only the nurses it needs.
A Filipino nurse working in world-class facilities abroad can always take this knowledge home or fill positions when local hospitals upgrade services.
In this way, strategic migration will empower communities to solve their own problems.
Section 5: How can sustainable migration be promoted?
We’ve now covered compelling evidence that migration can boost economies.
So now that it’s become urgent, how can we plan this migration to help us survive extreme climate change?
First, the International Organization for Migration should be empowered on behalf of the UN nations to manage migration on a global scale.
It should lay the ground rules and hold nations accountable for their commitments.
Rather than undermine nationalism, it should work on the premise that member states have enough agency to be the forebears of internationalism.
To efficiently manage migrants and the resources they need, cities will need to settle migrants in places where they can share water, electricity, healthcare, and other resources.
For instance, we could fit more people living comfortably in vertical power-efficient structures.
Planned migration should settle families and communities in places where they can maintain their social and cultural networks.
These communities should be close enough for migrants to build new networks among natives.
In the past, people have moved after a disaster, but the new model will need to anticipate and move people before extreme weather strikes, giving them UN passports or citizenship to access free movement, transport, and jobs.
Urban areas that take migrants should have access to clean, efficient housing with ample space for every family.
Nations would need to agree to quotas based on their needs, giving migrants a chance to receive training and carry out community work to ease their integration.
One of the reasons locals have resisted migration is the pressure some migrant communities put on social facilities.
Resistance is also likely to happen in places where local communities suffer inequality, leading locals to blame migrants for problems that preceded migration.
Closing the wealth gap and showing natives how migrants contribute to economic growth will lead to greater acceptance.
Section 6: Collaboration and science can be used to fight climate change.
Migration won’t solve all our problems, but it gives us a chance to restore our planet by reducing greenhouse gas emissions while adopting new science-backed solutions.
The vast deserts and habitats left behind by people in the global south fleeing climate change could be used to tap and transport solar energy to the north on a scale never seen before.
A big part of the job consists of restoring lost biodiversity in forests and oceans.
Sucking carbon out of our atmosphere, investing in renewable energy, bolstering clean nuclear energy, and tapping into geothermal energy will power our new city life.
Some countries will benefit from rising temperatures.
Thawing glaciers in the global north will open up places in Canada, Russia, and Greenland to sailing, fishing, farming, and mining.
These places will need more hands to fill the jobs that are created.
The world’s population passed eight billion in 2022 but will peak at ten billion around 2065 as the birth rate drops in developing countries.
Countries are likely to start competing for migrants.
But doesn’t it make sense for us to prioritize collaboration over the temptation to compete with each other?
Investing in instruments that promote safe, organized, and timely migration tailored to everyone’s needs would be beneficial for everyone.
The rules that give people access to travel and work across the EU and other economic blocs should be scaled up to a global level.
All this should happen while we’re trying to restore the planet.
And if that restoration works, migrants could safely move back to their homes in the global south.
Final Summary
In this Blink to Nomad Century by Gaia Vince, you’ve learned that planned migration, rather than being something we should fear, is a valuable tool in adapting to the climate crisis.
To implement this, we'll need global collaboration on a scale we’ve not seen before.
At current levels of greenhouse emissions, it’s almost impossible to reverse the effects of the extreme weather we’re currently experiencing.
We’re going to have to escape heat, fire, flood, and drought.
This should be achieved through planned migration to safer areas.
These safe havens need to be equipped with food, shelter, hospitals, playgrounds, jobs, and the networks immigrant communities will need to thrive.
When immigrants can move freely and work, they contribute immensely to the economies of host countries and boost the global economy.
Governments should work together to build a global body that anticipates, manages, and enables the safe passage of people.
This body should have the power to hold them accountable for their commitments.
These changes won’t erode the powers of nation-states.
Actually, the plan hinges on their strength and stability.
At a time when we need bold solutions to the climate crisis, we should lean on humanity’s most reliable strength – our innate ability to move.