What’s in it for me? Develop better judgment for smarter decision-making.
In 1912, as the Titanic began to sink, there was still time to save many more lives.
Yet, a critical failure in judgment – designing the ship with too few lifeboats – had already sealed the fate of over 1,500 passengers.
This is because judgment influences choices that shape our options well before a crisis arises.
In this Blink, you’ll discover why judgment is often overlooked, how it differs from decision-making, and why even experts can get it wrong.
More importantly, you’ll learn how to develop and refine your own judgment to make smarter, more strategic choices.
Ready?
Let’s get started.
There’s a fine balance between judgment, risk, and success
On January 15, 2009, Captain Chesley Sullenberger had only seconds to react when both engines on US Airways Flight 1549 failed.
With no power and limited options, he made a split-second decision to land the aircraft in the Hudson River, saving everyone on board.
His success wasn’t luck – it was the result of exceptional judgment.
Good judgment begins long before a decision is made.
It involves recognizing which choices deserve consideration.
This requires assessing situations, weighing risks, and maintaining awareness of the bigger picture.
Strong judgment draws on experience, intuition, and emotional intelligence, not just logic.
Decision-making focuses on selecting a course of action, while judgment shapes the process by determining which options are worth considering.
While decision-making focuses on selecting a course of action, judgment shapes the entire process by determining what options even make it to the table.
Developing better judgment takes effort.
Seeking out different perspectives challenges assumptions and helps you avoid blind spots.
Running through hypothetical scenarios builds the ability to evaluate risks under pressure.
And self-awareness – especially of emotions and biases – ensures clearer thinking rather than reactive choices.
Even when judgment is sound, success isn’t guaranteed.
A range of external influences, including luck and timing, can impact whether a decision leads to success or failure.
A poor choice can sometimes work out by chance, making it seem like good judgment was involved when it wasn’t.
Likewise, a well-reasoned decision can fail due to factors beyond anyone’s control.
So judgment should be evaluated across multiple decisions, not judged by a single outcome.
The ability to reflect on past choices – both right and wrong – helps sharpen future decision-making.
Organizations often undervalue judgment, prioritizing technical skills instead.
But the ability to assess situations wisely is what allows leaders to handle crises, solve problems, and make strong strategic decisions.
Encouraging critical thinking within teams leads to better collective judgment by ensuring assumptions are challenged – and multiple solutions are explored.
Without this, even experienced professionals can fall into the trap of overconfidence or narrow thinking.
Judgment is a skill you can develop through practice and reflection.
The more you sharpen your ability to assess situations clearly, the better prepared you’ll be when it really counts.
In the sections ahead, we’ll explore how experience, awareness, and trust form the foundation of good judgment, and how these principles apply in real-world decision-making.
Experience, awareness, and trust form the foundation of good judgment
A single decision can alter the course of history.
Take the Cold War, when a Soviet officer received an alarming report: the US was about to launch a missile attack – 100 percent certain.
Standard procedure dictated he escalate the warning, potentially sparking nuclear war.
But something felt off.
The certainty was unusually high, with no additional verification.
Trusting his gut over procedure, he identified a system malfunction.
He was right.
Disaster averted.
Later, they confirmed that the alert was a false alarm, triggered by sunlight bouncing off cloud formations.
His ability to question the data, draw on experience, and spot inconsistencies prevented a catastrophic response.
This officer’s judgment showcases the six key components of sound decision-making: experience, awareness, trust, information quality, emotional regulation, and reasoning ability.
Each plays a role in effective decision-making but may also result in errors if misused.
In this section we’ll focus on the first three – experience, awareness, and trust – which form the foundation of strong initial judgments.
Experience serves as a reference point, helping you identify patterns and foresee outcomes.
But don’t cling to past lessons too tightly or you’ll risk missing critical changes.
Experience builds confidence, but can also create blind spots.
What worked before might not work now – and assuming otherwise can lead to misjudgment.
The trick is to adapt knowledge, not just apply it.
Recognize the limits of what you know and stay open to new insights.
Awareness, in tandem with experience, sharpens judgment by revealing information gaps and subtle behavioral cues.
Spotting misleading data, recognizing what’s missing, and reading nonverbal signals can make or break a decision.
Yet familiarity breeds complacency.
When you’ve been in a situation for a long time, small but important changes can slip by unnoticed.
To stay aware, proactively question assumptions and seek out different perspectives.
Trust shapes judgment too, but it’s a double-edged sword.
Placing confidence in the wrong people or sources can lead to serious mistakes, especially when those individuals manipulate information to serve their own interests.
As a leader, avoid surrounding yourself with yes-men.
Instead, embrace those who challenge your thinking and provide honest, critical feedback.
And don’t forget to vet your information sources thoroughly – this will ensure that financial projections, market trends, and expert advice are cross-checked rather than taken at face value.
Ultimately, the interplay of experience, awareness, and trust determines the quality of your judgment.
When one dominates, risk increases.
You need to examine situations in their entirety, consider differing factors, and keep your conclusions adaptable.
You won’t eliminate mistakes entirely, but you can reduce them.
How feelings, choice, and delivery shape your judgment
Now that we’ve covered the foundations of sound judgment, let’s turn our attention to emotions and beliefs.
They shape how we assess risk, interpret information, and make decisions.
Some things that influence our beliefs, like personal values, are explicit.
Others, such as biases formed through experience, operate unconsciously.
These biases affect how we process information and form beliefs.
Take availability bias.
It makes us overvalue information that’s easy to remember.
Recency bias, on the other hand, gives too much weight to what happened lately.
And confirmation bias leads us to favor information that aligns with our preexisting beliefs – dismissing what contradicts it.
Overconfidence is another trap, making us believe our judgment is more reliable than it actually is.
So how do we make better decisions?
Start with self-awareness.
Recognizing how these influences shape your thinking is key to refining judgment and making more objective decisions.
Challenge your viewpoints, analyze potential blind spots, and incorporate diverse perspectives by using techniques such as reflective questioning, group discussions, and scenario planning.
Choice is another key factor in decision-making.
The way options are presented can heavily influence judgment, sometimes limiting available perspectives.
If you’re only given a narrow set of options, your judgment is automatically limited.
The solution?
Go beyond what’s in front of you.
Step back and ask whether other possibilities exist.
Delaying judgment, seeking alternative viewpoints, and challenging initial assumptions can all prevent you from falling into the trap of restricted thinking.
But even the best decisions can fail if implementation is weak.
That’s where delivery comes in.
Mistakes in execution often stem from poorly aligned goals, wavering dedication, or an unrealistic sense of certainty in the chosen course of action.
Establishing contingency plans, holding people accountable, and creating feedback loops can help ensure that a decision – no matter how well thought out – is successfully implemented.
Organizations that consistently review past choices and learn from their mistakes develop stronger judgment over time.
Recognizing that emotions and beliefs naturally influence judgment allows for a more thoughtful and balanced approach to decision-making.
The key isn’t to eliminate them but to integrate them into a broader framework of critical thinking and evidence-based reasoning.
Recognize that your mistakes provide opportunities for learning and improvement as lessons.
Continuously reassess information and question initial assumptions to sharpen your judgment, and make clearer and more effective decisions.
Speed, risk, and intuition in smart decision-making
When it comes to good judgment, how do you know when to trust your instincts, when to take a risk, and when to step back and evaluate?
Understanding risk, timing, and the limits of intuition is essential for good decision-making.
Let’s start with risk.
It should neither be ignored nor taken without thoughtful consideration.
Why?
Because small choices can build into major failures, as seen in structural collapses or financial disasters.
Because risk is often unclear, people tend to follow instinct over probability, and organizations struggle to balance caution with ambition.
The most effective decision-makers don’t shy away from risk; they approach it proactively, combining analysis with experience.
Hand in hand with risk goes speed – another pivotal factor.
Some decisions must be made instantly, like those in emergency situations where hesitation can be deadly.
Others require deeper evaluation, where rushing can lead to costly mistakes.
So, how do you know which is which?
The key lies in identifying the type of decision you face.
Amazon’s approach – dividing choices into reversible and irreversible ones – offers a useful model.
When a decision can be corrected later, speed is beneficial.
When the consequences are permanent, a slower, more deliberate process is necessary.
To be an effective leader, you need to understand when to act fast and when to step back for careful consideration.
Now, where does intuition fit into all of this?
While it also plays a role in decision-making, your gut instinct has its limits.
Sure, experience allows individuals to recognize patterns quickly, but intuition falters in unfamiliar situations.
Think about it like this: a firefighter sensing danger in a burning building is different from a business executive making a financial decision based on a hunch.
So, to ensure sound judgment, test your intuition against logic, data, and external perspectives rather than relying on it blindly.
This brings us to the importance of diverse perspectives.
They elevate decision-making by exposing blind spots and challenging assumptions.
When decision-makers all share the same background or mindset, they risk overlooking critical factors.
Encourage dissent within your team to prevent groupthink, where consensus becomes more important than critical evaluation.
Companies that welcome opposing viewpoints are more adaptable and less prone to catastrophic mistakes.
The result?
More resilient strategies and overall robustness.
On the flip side, poor judgment often stems from predictable errors: underestimating risks, failing to challenge assumptions, and letting emotions take over.
People tend to fear losses more than they seek gains, leading to overly cautious or reactionary choices.
Recognizing these biases and using structured decision-making frameworks can improve outcomes.
Organizations that learn from past mistakes rather than punishing them create an environment where better decisions are made consistently.
Sound judgment requires more than just avoiding failure; it requires actively minimizing avoidable errors and continuously refining the decision-making process.
Good judgment is the power behind great leadership and decisions
We've explored the components of good judgment – experience, awareness, trust, emotional regulation, and how speed and risk affect decision-making.
Now, let's examine how these principles play out in specific leadership contexts, where the stakes and challenges vary significantly.
At the executive level, judgment takes on a distinctive character.
Unlike routine decisions handled at lower organizational tiers, the challenges that reach senior leaders involve competing interests, unpredictable outcomes, and significant risks.
Good judgment at this level means balancing experience with awareness of blind spots, managing emotional responses, and knowing when to act quickly versus when to deliberate.
Those who excel understand that judgment must be applied with even greater discipline when the consequences affect entire organizations.
Hiring decisions provide another context where judgment is critical but manifests differently.
While a candidate's past achievements might look impressive, success in one role doesn't guarantee the same in another.
The best hiring managers look beyond resumes to uncover how candidates handle complex situations, adapt to challenges, and think under pressure.
As we've seen with the risks of overconfidence, behavioral assessments and situational questions help evaluate a candidate's judgment capabilities – not just their technical skills.
In the startup world, judgment can be the difference between bold leadership and reckless decision-making.
Many startups don’t collapse due to bad ideas; instead, founders often overestimate demand, mismanage resources, or ignore warning signs.
Take the entrepreneur who launched a rapid book delivery service before online shopping took off.
The concept was innovative, but customers weren’t willing to pay extra for speed.
Instead of adjusting early, the founder persisted for two years, draining resources before selling at a loss.
That lesson – knowing when to adjust strategy – is one many successful entrepreneurs learn the hard way.
For public-sector leaders, judgment is even more complex.
Unlike businesses, government and nonprofit organizations must balance legal constraints, ethical responsibilities, and public trust.
Decisions often come under intense scrutiny, and political or ideological biases can cloud objective analysis.
Leaders in this space need to separate personal beliefs from strategic decision-making while navigating bureaucratic challenges.
These varied contexts demonstrate how judgment components manifest differently depending on leadership role and sector.
The core principles remain consistent, but their application varies based on the specific challenges and stakes involved.
This reinforces that judgment isn't a one-size-fits-all skill, but rather a flexible capacity that adapts to the demands of different decision-making environments.
Final summary
In this Blink to Judgement at Work by Andrew Likierman, you’ve learned that judgment is a vital skill you can hone through experience and learning, enabling you to wisely assess situations, weigh risks, and make informed decisions.
Effective judgment balances six interconnected pillars.
It starts with experience that provides valuable insights, but must be adapted to new situations.
Next comes awareness – the ability to detect biases, identify information gaps, and remain open to different perspectives.
Trusting others is also key, but it's important to ensure diverse viewpoints challenge assumptions.
Recognizing how feelings, beliefs, emotions and cognitive biases shape decisions is crucial, as is learning to manage them effectively.
The ability to critically evaluate options, avoid restricted thinking, and commit to the best course of action is another essential component.
Finally, ensuring well-reasoned decisions are successfully implemented requires accountability, adaptability, and continuous learning.
By applying this framework to your personal and professional life, you'll pave the way for more effective decision-making.
Whether you're managing crises, leading teams, or making everyday choices, refining your judgment helps minimize mistakes and maximize success.
Remember, your judgment isn't static – it improves with reflection and application.
By honing this skill, you'll enhance your ability to make thoughtful, strategic, and impactful decisions in any situation.
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